Tuesday, 28 November 2017

New Position: ODAX January 2018 Iron Condor


For the first 2018 position and I have decided to go for a January 13600/1400 - 12300/11900 Iron Condor plus a February 13400/13450 Debit Call Spread.

DAX 30 on November 28th 2017. Source Investing
52 days to go and an Implicit Volatility of around 14%. Given the relatively low IV and the underlying bullish trend, which has given me so much pain before, I also opened a Debit Call Spread for the February expiration cycle. This second spread should help me resisting another increase in the underlying and will allow me to postpone any necessary adjustment.

Tuesday, 21 November 2017

Closed: ODAX December 2017 Put Spread


Today, after less than one week and a 300 points bounce up by the DAX, I was able to close the position locking around 70% of the profit.

DAX 30 on November 21st 2017. Source Investing
I could have waited three more weeks to get those final 32€, but I decided to close the trade and move on in order to reduce risk. Perhaps, in the coming weeks we reach another good condition for another put spread in January, or even an Iron Condor.

Wednesday, 15 November 2017

New position: ODAX Dec 2017 Credit Put Spread


This morning, after about 5% decline in ten days or so and the IV (Implicit volatility) at 16, I opened a 12200 - 11800 Credit Put Spread aiming for the December expiration cycle.

DAX on November 15th 2017. Source Investing
Only 30 days until expiration and not too much delta, so the credit received is rather small. I´m betting on some sideways action on the former 12800-12900 resistance level.

Wednesday, 1 November 2017

Closed: Nov 2017 Iron Condor + Dec Debit Spreads


Finally, after yet another break upwards, I closed the November 2017 Iron Condor to a full loss. Additionally, I closed the November "auxiliary" debit spreads for a tiny win.

DAX on November 1st 2017. Source Investing
All in all, all 2017 gains in my account were wiped out, while the index in gaining more than 16%. Some thoughts on this below.

Friday, 27 October 2017

ODAX November 2017 Iron Condor adjustment (VI)


Today, I moved the put leg further up, trying to reduce the damage as much as possible. Now, the trade is mathematically a loser and the minimum loss matches the loss I should have taken when the call leg reached 30 delta. Something to learn for future trades.

DAX on October 27th. Source Investing
I will try to reduce the loss as much as possible, possibly rolling the put leg again if the climb continues. The loss in account terms ranges from 1,5% to 7,6%.

Thursday, 19 October 2017

ODAX Dec 2017 Bear Put Spread


Today, early in the morning, I bought a ODAX Dec 2017 12650-12600 Bear Put Spread. By definition, this trade is a debit spread, which means that I had to pay 51,5€ to open it while it has a limited maximum profit of 199,5. Those 51,5€ also represent the maximum loss and there is also a low probability of success (the market actually needs to go in my favor before December 17 to make a profit).

DAX on Oct 19 2017 Source Investing
The idea here is betting on a pullback risking little capital. Volatility is too low to open a Credit Put Spread while I already have too much upside expose with the infamous November Iron Condor.

Wednesday, 18 October 2017

ODAX November 2017 Iron Condor adjustment (V)


30 days remain until November option expiration day and I keep struggling with the Iron Condor deployed at 12800-13200 (about 250 point ITM - In the money). As I collected half of the credit deployed for the 12450-12000 Put Spread, I deployed a new one at 12800-12400.

DAX on October 18th 2017. Source investig
Break-even points are 12932 on the upside and 12668 on the downside. I will happily close the whole thing if we approach to the mid 12900s as time value is getting smaller and smaller. If not, I will try to reduce the max loss figure, which is a scenario more likely to happen day after day.